Market Insights | The Five-Year Shift in Australia's Housing Market

Key Takeaways; 

• National median dwelling values increased 41.4% over the five years to July 2026, reaching $928,421.

• Growth was heavily concentrated in Perth (+93.4%), Brisbane (+84.4%) and Adelaide (+83.0%), which emerged as the standout performers of the cycle.

• Melbourne materially underperformed the national market, highlighting a significant shift in housing market leadership away from the traditional east coast capitals.

Australia's median dwelling value reached $928,421 as at 31 July 2026, representing 5.3% growth in the past 12 months and a 41.4% increase over the past five years.

However, the national figure only tells part of the story.

The current housing cycle has been defined by exceptional growth across Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide. Over the five years to July 2026, dwelling values increased 93.4%, 84.4% and 83.0% respectively, significantly outperforming the national market. In contrast, Melbourne recorded only modest growth over the same period, while Sydney also underperformed relative to the smaller capital cities. This represents a notable shift from previous cycles, when Australia's largest capitals were the primary drivers of housing market growth.

While dwelling values remained 5.3% higher over the year to July 2026, momentum has clearly softened. National dwelling values declined 1.9% over the three months to July, with Sydney and Melbourne recording the largest falls.

The timing of this slowdown is particularly noteworthy. Sydney reached its recent market peak in January 2026, while Perth and Brisbane continued to record growth until much later in the cycle. This suggests the housing market is transitioning from a period of broad-based growth to a more mature phase, with affordability constraints, higher borrowing costs and changing market conditions beginning to weigh on price growth.

Despite the recent moderation, housing values remain substantially above 2021 levels. The past five years have reinforced that capital growth has not been uniform across Australia, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide emerging as the primary drivers of national housing market performance. As momentum continues to ease, it will be increasingly important to monitor whether these markets can continue to offset weaker conditions in Sydney and Melbourne.

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, July 2021 and July 2026.